Investor Letter - Second Quarter 2008
Issue #15
July 2008
In This Issue
Hurley Capital Composite Performance
Standing On The Shoulders Of Giants
Behind The Numbers
What To Watch For
Dear Client/Friend,
 
During the first six months of 2008, we are pleased to deliver positive returns while the market was down substantially. In these times, we remain primarily focused on protecting our capital, while seeking new investment opportunities using our value-oriented approach.

Thanks again for your trust and your referrals -- they are the highest form of compliment.
 
Sincerely,
 

Charles Goldblum, CFA
Composite Of Hurley Capital Accounts Up 1.0% Year-To-Date Versus An 11.9% Decline for the S&P 500

In the first half of 2008, the Hurley Capital Core Equity Composite of accounts managed by Hurley Capital rose 1.0% after all fees and expenses. In comparison, the S&P 500 fell 11.9%, including dividends.

Hurley Capital 0.99% YTD S&P500TR YTD -11.91%

Our 2008 outperformance to date is due strong second quarter returns:

Q208 Investment Performance

                      Hurley Capital Core Equity Composite      + 6.02%
                      S&P 500, Total Return                                    - 2.73%

Our portfolio focus has been on strong industries such as energy and hypermarkets and avoidance of the weakest industries such as financials, telecoms, and industrials. Leading gainers year-to-date include Chesapeake Energy, Wal*Mart and our short position in Choice Hotels, while our losses were largest in our short position in Arkansas Best, and long positions in Avid Technology and SK Telecom.

Standing On The Shoulders Of Giants

In past newsletters we've discussed value investment strategies learned from established and renowned mutual fund managers such as Marty Whitman of the Third Avenue Value Fund (Low Risk Does Not Mean Low Returns), Bruce Berkowitz of the Fairholme Fund (How Can We Lose?), and Wally Weitz of the Weitz Value Fund (Bird-In-The-Hand Investing). We recently travelled to Memphis to attend the annual meeting for the Longleaf Funds, managed by a team led by Mason Hawkins. An example of how difficult this market has been is the recent performance of these great investors. As the below graphic shows, we've outperformed these managers so far this year, and more importantly, over the last three years.

q208 other funds performance


 
Behind The Numbers: Explaining Recent Performance
Our performance to date, including this year's outperformance, is due to adhering  to our investment methodology, which centers on the following disciplines:
  • Macro Drives Micro - Invest in industries with positive secular or cyclical trends. Within those industries, find inexpensive stocks. Our investment in Wal*Mart is taking advantage of the cyclical trend of consumers "trading down" into more affordable products. At recent prices, we  believe Wal*Mart trades at an 8-9% free cash flow yield, that will grow in 2009. Importantly, avoiding struggling industries has prevented us from "bottom-fishing" in home-builders, financials or consumer discretionary sectors.
  • Buy At Discounts To Private Market Valuations - Loews Corp trades at about a 25% discount to the value of its investments. While these investments may fall in value, we get the proven skills of the Tisch family at a discount and the benefits of any value-creating transactions for free. Chesapeake Energy trades at a about 12% free-cash-flow yield on current 2009 estimates, not accounting for any of the upside associated with ongoing exploration success. The stock is up this month, on a recent announcement of a partnership on a new natural gas find in Louisiana that implies $10 billion of additional value to shareholders.
  • Invest Defensively - A company's underlying value, if not its stock price, is defined by the level of free cash flow it can produce. We believe that if we can find companies with high and durable free cash flow, our investment can be considered defensive. Leading Korean wireless telecom provider SK Telecom should have a free cash flow yield of over 12% this year based on current prices. With the sale of its underperforming Helio wireless startup in the USA, we believe this defensive investment should hold it's value. Enbridge Energy Management and our prior ownership of Stamps.com are other examples of defensive investments that have held their value in these difficult market conditions.
Comparison Of Change In Value
Of $10,000 Investment, Net Of Fees
Hurley Capital $17,798 vs S&P $13,883
What To Watch For
We continue to spend our time building and maintaining conservative, value-oriented portfolios for our clients; talking to companies, their suppliers, customers and competitors. We are pleased with the results so far and look forward to providing good risk-adjusted returns for clients over the long-term. For more information on Hurley Capital, including previous newsletters, please visit our website: Hurley Capital.

Sincerely,

Charles Goldblum, CFA
Hurley Capital
 
Important Disclosure

The Hurley Capital Managed Accounts Composite represents all actual client accounts invested in this strategy for the entire year.  The Hurley Capital Managed Accounts Composite allocates client portfolios in equity and fixed income investments, weighted according to Hurley Capital's proprietary investment strategy. 

Actual client accounts utilizing the Hurley Capital Managed Accounts Composite may have varying allocations between equities and fixed income investments based on individual investment preferences.   The results of the Hurley Capital Managed Accounts Composite are net-of-fees, brokerage commissions, and other expenses.  Hurley Capital's investment advisory fees are described in the disclosure statement of Part II of the Form ADV which is available upon request.

The results of the Hurley Capital Managed Accounts Composite include the reinvestment of dividends.  Comparison of the Hurley Capital Managed Accounts Composite to the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite is for illustrative purposes only and the volatility of the indices used for comparison may be materially different from the volatility of the Hurley Capital Managed Accounts Composite due to varying degrees of diversification and/or other factors.

Past performance of the Hurley Capital Managed Accounts Composite may not be indicative of future results and the performance of a specific individual client account may vary substantially from the composite results above in part because client accounts may be allocated among several portfolios.  Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment will be profitable.

Performance is expressed in US Dollars (USD). A complete list of current recommendations is available upon request.

 
 Hurley Capital, LLC
Core Equity Composite
Annual Disclosure Presentation
image for GIPS disclosure
Core Equity Composite contains fully discretionary core equity accounts and for comparison purposes is measured against the S&P 500. Since inception, the minimum account size for this composite has been $50 thousand.

Hurley Capital, LLC has prepared and presented this report in compliance with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPSŪ).

Hurley Capital, LLC is an independent registered investment adviser with the states of New York and Connecticut. The firm maintains a complete list and description of composites, which is available upon request.

Results are based on fully discretionary accounts under management, including those accounts no longer with the firm. Prior to August, 2004, the composite had 100% non-fee paying accounts in the composite. Composite performance is presented net of foreign withholding taxes on dividends, interest income, and capital gains. Withholding taxes may vary according to the investor's domicile. Leverage/Derivatives may make up a material part of the composite strategy which includes short selling, with the short position covered by cash accounts that are marked to market on a daily basis. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

The U.S. Dollar is the currency used to express performance. Returns are presented gross and net of management fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Net of fee performance was calculated using actual management fees. The annual composite dispersion presented is an asset-weighted standard deviation calculated for the accounts in the composite the entire year. Additional information regarding the policies for calculating and reporting returns is available upon request.

The investment management fee schedule for the composite is 1.5% on the first $2 million, and negotiable thereafter, or 1% on all balances plus 10% of annual investment gains, subject to high-water marks. Actual investment advisory fees incurred by clients may vary.

The Core Equity Composite was created August 31, 2003. Hurley Capital, LLC's compliance with the GIPS standards has been verified for the period of August 31, 2003 through December 31, 2007 by Ashland Partners & Company LLP. In addition, a performance examination was conducted on Core Equity Composite beginning
August 31, 2003. A copy of the verification report is available upon request.