Investor Letter - Fourth Quarter 2008
Issue #17
January 2009
In This Issue
Hurley Capital Composite Performance
Morningstar 5-Star Rating
Recent Investment: Lawson Software
Transparency, Liquidity and Consistency
Important Disclosure
Dear Clients and Friends,
 
In 2008, we achieved our primary goal of protecting client capital in a very difficult investment environment in all asset classes. We continue to deliver on our investment goal of keeping up in good markets and protecting client capital in bad ones.

Over the last two years, the stock market has endured one of its worst performances in generations. While the the S&P 500 fell 33% over the past two years, the Hurley Capital Composite of client accounts has achieved slightly positive returns for our clients over the same period. We believe our investment process has been tested and validated by its performance in these markets and our clients are well-positioned to benefit when better markets return. As a comparison, while the Hurley Capital Composite is slightly above December 2006 levels, the S&P 500 will need to rise about 50% from its 2008 year-end value to recoup its losses of the last two years.

Morningstar, a leading independent research and rating agency, has recognized the risk-adjusted performance of our Core Equity strategy by giving us a five-star rating. This is their top rating and we are honored to receive this third-party recognition of our work.

We have received many referrals as individuals rethink investment strategies and relationships. We appreciate your confidence in us and thank you for your consideration.

Sincerely,
 

Charles Goldblum, CFA
Hurley Capital Composite Down 14% In 2008, S&P 500 Down 37%

For 2008, the Hurley Capital Core Equity Composite of accounts managed by Hurley Capital fell 14.0% after all fees and expenses. In comparison, the S&P 500 fell 37.0%, including dividends. 

Since inception (August 2003), we've provided total cumulative returns after fees in excess of 50%, while the S&P 500 total return is negative over the same time frame.

Hurley Capital Performance Since inception
 
 
2008 outperformance was due to three factors:
(1) Sticking to our investment process, which means looking for cheap companies in strong industries to buy, and avoid everything else. This process enabled us to sell some winners earlier in the year, such as Coca-Cola, Canadian Natural Resources and half of our position in WalMart.
(2) Selective short selling, where we look for expensive companies in weak industries. In 2008 we were successful shorting Choice Hotels and International Speedway. Short selling has provided profits for our clients in both rising and falling markets. The composite rarely holds more than one short sale, and never more than two.
(3) Using options to reduce risk. Neither Avid nor Dell were winners for us in 2008, but the use of options substantially reduced our losses.

Comparison Of Change In Value
of $10,000 Investment, Net Of Fees
 Hurley Capital vs. S&P 500, since inception
Hurley Capital Value Equity Receives 5-Star Rating
Morningstar Logo

We are pleased to announce that Morningstar, a leading provider of research on mutual funds and separate account managers, gave the Hurley Capital Value Equity strategy its top rating (5-stars) as of September 30, 2008 in recognition of our risk-adjusted performance. Morningstar is best known for rating mutual funds and maintaining a database of investment managers for asset allocators.

Recent Investment: Lawson Software 2.5% Senior Convertible Note Due 2012

This investment suits our defensive and conservative investment style, with the potential to provide double-digit returns for our clients.

Lawson Software is a mid-size software company with about $850 million in annual revenues. This convertible bond matures in April 2012, and we project receiving a 16% annualized return from our purchase in October until that time.

The facts are as follows:
 - We Project Double-Digit Returns - We bought the debt at 65 cents on the dollar, which means that in April 2012, Lawson is obligated to pay us $1 for every 65 cents we invested in the bond. This gain plus the 2.5% annual interest due on each $1 of debt constitutes the expected return.
 - They Have The Cash To Pay Us Back -  As of August 31, 2008, the company had $360 million in cash and only this $240 million convertible debt outstanding. So, if the debt was due today, the company has the cash to pay us back.
- They Are Expected To Continue Generating Cash - During the 12 months ended May 2008, Lawson generated approximately $58 million in free cash flow. While revenues in the year ending May 2009 may not equal the prior year, we believe Lawson should be able to generate cash. In November, Lawson announced a 5% headcount reduction and has taken steps to reduce annual expenses by $40-50 million
- If We're Wrong, We'll Still Get Paid - We believe that should Lawson lose all their cash and go broke today, that the company could be sold for at least $670 million, which is two times the value of their customer maintenance revenues. This "salvage value" covers the convertible debt outstanding by over 2.5x.
- If They Do Great, We Can Gain Added Benefit - As an added bonus, our convertible bond can be converted to Lawson stock at $12.02 per share. So, should the stock jump from it's current price ($4.94 on January 5), we stand to benefit. This scenario may be unlikely, but it's possible.

 
Transparency, Liquidity And Consistency

Since opening Hurley Capital in 2003, we have focused on a client-centric business model. Our core values are transparency, liquidity and consistency. Recent news has reemphasized the importance of these concepts, which have been central to us from the outset:

Transparency: Clients accounts are custodied at Schwab Institutional. Clients have web-access to their accounts and phone access to Schwab representatives. Clients receive trade confirmations and account statements directly from Schwab Institutional. Hurley Capital has no access to withdraw client funds beyond management fees in accordance with our client investment management agreements.

Liquidity: Client capital is available at all times. Some asset managers require clients to commit capital for years at a time and withdrawals may be limited.

Consistency: Our investment process has remained the same since we started - conservative and value-oriented. We invest alongside our clients.

Furthermore, the Hurley Capital Core Equity Composite, which forms the basis of our performance figures below, is prepared in compliance with GIPS standards and is verified quarterly by Ashland Partners, a 3rd party verification firm.
 
What To Watch For

We continue to spend our time building and maintaining conservative, value-oriented portfolios for our clients; talking to companies, their suppliers, customers and competitors. We are satisfied with the results so far and strive to providing good risk-adjusted returns for clients over the long-term. For more information on Hurley Capital, including previous newsletters, please visit our website: Hurley Capital.

As you know, we are always available to discuss any additional concerns you have during this volatile period.

Sincerely,

Charles Goldblum, CFA
Hurley Capital
 
Important Disclosure

The performance results presented herein reflect the performance of all actual client accounts invested in the Hurley Capital Core Equity Composite from inception (August 31, 2003) to September 30, 2008. The Hurley Capital Core Equity Composite allocates client portfolios in equity and fixed income investments, weighted according to Hurley Capital's proprietary investment strategy. Actual client accounts utilizing the Hurley Capital Core Equity Composite may have varying allocations between equities and fixed income investments based on individual investment preferences. The performance results of the Hurley Capital Core Equity Composite are net-of-fees, brokerage commissions, and other expenses and include the reinvestment of dividends.

Past performance of the Hurley Capital Core Equity Composite may not be indicative of future results and the performance of a specific individual client account may vary substantially from the composite results presented herein in part because client accounts may be allocated among several portfolios. Hurley Capital makes no representation that the results presented herein reflect the typical experience of a Hurley Capital client nor that current or prospective clients will experience similar results.Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment will be profitable.

Comparison of the Hurley Capital Core Equity Composite to the S&P 500 Index is for illustrative purposes only and the volatility of the S&P 500 Index may be materially different from the volatility of the Hurley Capital Core Equity Composite due to varying degrees of diversification and/or other factors.

Reference to the specific securities stated herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not being referenced as a favored investment of Hurley Capital. Hurley Capital is under no obligation to hold any equity position for any time period and Hurley Capital's current recommendations are subject to change at any time without notice. The securities mentioned herein should not be considered as personalized investment advice and should not be construed as an endorsement, solicitation or recommendation to purchase or sell any security. A complete list of Hurley Capital's current recommendations is available upon request.

Hurley Capital, LLC ("Hurley Capital") is an SEC registered investment adviser with its principal place of business in the State of New York. Hurley Capital and its representatives are in compliance with the current registration and notice filing requirements imposed upon registered investment advisers by those states in which Hurley Capital maintains clients. Hurley Capital may only transact business in those states in which it is notice filed, or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from notice filing requirements. Any subsequent, direct communication by Hurley Capital with a prospective client shall be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides. For information pertaining to the registration status of Hurley Capital, please contact Hurley Capital or refer to the Investment Adviser Public Disclosure web site (www.adviserinfo.sec.gov).

For additional information about Hurley Capital, including fees and services, send for our disclosure statement as set forth on Form ADV from Hurley Capital using the contact information herein. Please read the disclosure statement carefully before you invest or send money.

Third-party rankings or recognition by rating services or publications is no guarantee of future investment success.
 
 Hurley Capital, LLC
Core Equity Composite
Annual Disclosure Presentation
image for GIPS disclosure
Core Equity Composite contains fully discretionary core equity accounts and for comparison purposes is measured against the S&P 500. Since inception, the minimum account size for this composite has been $50 thousand.

Hurley Capital, LLC has prepared and presented this report in compliance with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPSŪ).

Hurley Capital, LLC is an independent registered investment adviser with the states of New York and Connecticut. The firm maintains a complete list and description of composites, which is available upon request.

Results are based on fully discretionary accounts under management, including those accounts no longer with the firm. Prior to August 2004, the composite had 100% non-fee paying accounts in the composite. Composite performance is presented net of foreign withholding taxes on dividends, interest income, and capital gains. Withholding taxes may vary according to the investor's domicile. Leverage/Derivatives may make up a material part of the composite strategy which includes short selling, with the short position covered by cash accounts that are marked to market on a daily basis. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

The U.S. Dollar is the currency used to express performance. Returns are presented gross and net of management fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Net of fee performance was calculated using actual management fees. The annual composite dispersion presented is an asset-weighted standard deviation calculated for the accounts in the composite the entire year. Additional information regarding the policies for calculating and reporting returns is available upon request.

The investment management fee schedule for the composite is 1.5% on the first $2 million, and negotiable thereafter, or 1% on all balances plus 10% of annual investment gains, subject to high-water marks. Actual investment advisory fees incurred by clients may vary.

The Core Equity Composite was created August 31, 2003. Hurley Capital, LLC's compliance with the GIPS standards has been verified for the period of August 31, 2003 through September 30, 2008 by Ashland Partners & Company LLP. In addition, a performance examination was conducted on Core Equity Composite beginning August 31, 2003. A copy of the verification report is available upon request.